USD JPY Forecast Forex Crunch

Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

I like my numbers how I like my men

Hard.
Following up on my post about trading economic news, here are some hard numbers about news releases. If you can't be bothered to read any further, just know that a high S value means there is money to be made by trading the release of that economic metric.
I collected historical data (consensus and actual) for each of these economic metrics from January 2018 to the present. These are mostly monthly metrics; one is quarterly, one is biweekly, and one is weekly. I did this manually from an economic news aggregation website because I'm too cheap to pay for exported data. I also noted whether each release was the primary (or only) news being released at that precise moment or whether there were other important economic metrics being released at the same time.
Then I wrote software to fetch 2 minutes of USD/JPY price data (in 5 second candles) starting at the time of each release and correlated each candle to the "surprise" in the metric (the difference between the consensus and the actual). That produced data for each metric that looks like this and give you an idea how reliably the news predicts the short-term price move.
Next the software went back through the price history and measured the "coordinated movement" of the currency pair during each candle. By that I mean it measured the size of each candle in pips and then set the sign to be positive if its moving in the same direction as the first candle or negative otherwise, and averaged all those numbers together. These charts look like this and give you an idea how dramatically the price moves in response to the news.
Then, for each candle, the absolute value of the correlation is multiplied against the coordinated movement, creating a "tradeability" score. The idea is that a strong (positive or negative) correlation and a strong coordinated movement yields a high score, and either a weak correlation or a small price movement yields a low score. These charts look like this.
Finally, for each news release I measured the maximum value of the correlation (R) and the maximum value of the tradeability score (S). Since I don't have access to anything with finer granularity than 5 seconds, it's no surprise that candle 0 had the maximum correlation and maximum tradeability for each metric.
I did this process twice for every metric: first over all releases and second over only those releases that were the primary or only release happening at that moment. I kept the results from the one that returned the better net maximum tradeability score. The net maximum tradeability score is just the product of the maximum tradeability score and the number of releases being considered, either all of them or some smaller number. (This helps avoid bias in the results for metrics that are often released at the same time as other metrics.)
In the results linked at the top of this post, the metrics are ordered by decreasing maximum tradeability score (S) with maximum correlation (R) also shown. Remember, R = +1 means perfect positive linear correlation, R = -1 means perfect negative linear correlation, and R = 0 means no correlation. S values less than 3 are essentially untradeable due to the spread.
A couple notes:
It takes me about 15 minutes to scrape 2 years of monthly data by hand and type it up, and then the software takes about 10 seconds to run per metric. If there are regular forecasted economic releases that you'd like to see correlated and scored, let me know! I can do other currency pairs and other country's economic news as well, it's just a matter of data collection.
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow

Folks that enjoyed my post on trading economic news may be thinking about trying their hands at trading tomorrow morning’s Non Farm Payroll (NFP) Employment.
The previous month’s value was 273k and the consensus for this release is -100k. The figure will be released at exactly 8:30 AM ET tomorrow and you can listen to a free live squawk (starting at 8:00 ET) at FinancialJuice.com.
Edit: I guess some folks saw me link to this site a few times and were concerned I’m shilling for them. I’m not affiliated with the site, I just use it because it’s free and I’m cheap. There may be other free squawk services out there (and I’d like to know if there are). The pros use paid services like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews and I think they offer free trials, so that’s an option too. Really anywhere you can get the NFP figure within 1-2 seconds after release will work.
Remember, a beat on the NFP forecast (higher number) is usually good for the dollar and a miss on the forecast (lower number) is usually bad for the dollar. The effect is most pronounced between USD and very stable currencies, for example USD/JPY.
However! This is the first negative NFP consensus in god knows how long. There will be a lot more eyes on the news than usual so you’ll have to be even faster on the trigger than usual.
Additionally, coronavirus is causing havoc in the markets and “infinite QE” is causing all sorts of non-reactions to things that would ordinarily be market movers. So it’s possible that the correlation I showed in my previous post will be muted tomorrow. Or it could be strengthened. Who knows, these are crazy and unprecedented times!
Finally, remember that the historical pricing, spreads, and correlation data I posted was based on OANDA, and since forex is OTC your mileage with your broker may vary, especially when it comes to the first few seconds after a news release.
Welp that’s me covering my ass in case things go sideways tomorrow :)
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

💥FRIDAY MARKET FORECAST💥

💥FRIDAY MARKET FORECAST💥

TopAsiaFX - FRIDAY MARKET FORECAST
💥FRIDAY MARKET FORECAST💥
𝐌𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞: Preparing for Nonfarm Payrolls
🔰 #EURUSD and #GBPUSD consolidate losses ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.
🔰 #USDJPY pair pressures the 110.00 figure as equities continued to advance.
🔰 The OPEC+ proposed a 600,000 bpd oil output cut will start immediately and continue until June if agreed by all members.
🔰 #Gold prices advanced for a second consecutive day but remain in the red for the week, amid persistent demand for high-yielding assets.
🔰 #AUDUSD easing ahead of Lowe, RBA Minutes.
#forex #market #news #forecast #currency #eur #usd #jpy #aud #gbp#oil #fxmedia topasiafx.com
submitted by ronykhanfx to TopAsiaFX [link] [comments]

Forex Signals

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submitted by forex-pips-signal to u/forex-pips-signal [link] [comments]

Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: Global stocks are dropping following economic contraction in two of the world’s largest economies

US Stocks


Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

European Stocks


Asian Stocks


submitted by QuantalyticsResearch to stocks [link] [comments]

Your PM US Stocks and a whole lot more news that you need to read: US stocks close lower, pare earlier losses on Brexit progress

US Markets End of Day Snapshot


Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

US Treasuries


Currencies


Commodities


submitted by QuantalyticsResearch to stocks [link] [comments]

Silver is dropping: Technicals and Fundamentals (/SIU7)

Silver is dropping. A good short IMHO. Here's why:

Technicals

On the D1, you can see a really beautiful, repetitive descending sinusoidal wave forming. It is respecting its channel quite nicely. Lower highs and lower lows mean a definite southbound trend. I ran a Fibonacci extension off of the last wave, and since I bow to the temple of the Fibonacci Sweet Spot (the 0.5-0.618 zone), this puts the target price firmly in the $15.48-$15.16 target range for exit. Nature Respects the Fib. Note that we are at a support line right now between $16.25-$16.18. If it breaches this, it should drop nicely.
Check out this /SIU7 D1 chart
Remember that Previous Price Performance Probably Predicts Pending Principal Projections.

Fundamentals

For those of you who are new - let's learn some Forex. Metals are correlated to the JPY (Japanese Yen), gold more than silver, but both tend to follow the currency quite nicely. Yen up = metals up, and Yen dropping = metals dropping, almost to a T. Gold follows this almost rigidly, it is spooky how gold will mirror JPY almost to a tick. Now, most FX traders look at USDJPY... which means that when USDJPY drops, that means Yen is going up, which means metals should climb. Hence, metals are inversely correlated to USDJPY.
USDJPY is climbing. US inflation is what everyone is jabbing about - Dollar stronk(er) this week, at least in relation to the Yen. There is a "widening of the interest rate differential between U.S. Government Bonds and Japanese Government Bonds"; as well, there is an increasing demand for higher risk assets... which straight forward means that money will move away from metals and away from the Yen, both of which are seen as safe havens in tough times. Read on: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/usdjpy-fundamental-weekly-forecast-its-all-about-u-s-inflation-this-week-427595
Also, USDJPY produced a doji on the W1 chart, a decent reversal signal when correlated with other data. Higher time-frames produce stronger signals, and algos have more money and power than you ever will, trader..... and those AIs respect these levels very much. Check it out: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-forecast-bullish-follow-through-likely-after-last-weeks-doji-201708070413
Would love to hear other trader's thoughts.
I'm short 1 contract of /SIU7. Don't coattail me without doing your own DD, if you lose money, it's your own fault, you should have stayed in school and gotten that plebe job like momma said, ya loser =)
Remember that Silver is a very highly leveraged asset, one tick = $0.005 and each tick is $25.00. This means that $1.00 movement in the price of silver is worth $5,000.00 per contract!! Please protect yourself with stops and don't be afraid to take profits. Silver has tickled many a traders greed gland, usually rectally, and this has led to massive destruction more than once....
submitted by El_Huachinango to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

Market report 1/25/18: JPY, MXN

Yesterday was a good day to short the USD. I had issues with my trade execution I need to correct, but I've got some decent positions backed by break-even SLs that I'm hoping will bear fruit going forward. The big thing I learned was the power of waiting for news. During news it's important to make bigger plays rather than small ones. For some reason, I had that backwards! :-P
I'm still short USD, but I'm not convinced it's time to double-down yet. I'm expecting at least some consolidation before having to make a decision. I don't want to ruin my positions by adding now only to be stopped out because price reached the average of my two entries.
Today there was some negative news out of Mexico. Minor reports, but sales data is down. I'm expecting Mexico to fall off given the reports of crime coming out of there. No one I know here in the US wants to vacation there. That has to hurt their bottom line, so I'm long USDMXN for a very small play against the recent low 18.3 established 6am PST. If my broker offered anything other than USD against MXN I would take it. I tried to short USDMXN before and got burned, so like I say, very minor play here, especially considering the negative carry trade.
3:30pm PST today is the JPY announcement. No change in interest rates or core CPI are forecast. YoY inflation is projected higher, but MoM is lower. Overall it appears to be a non-event, other than it could perhaps project USDJPY lower.
I of course had a USDJPY position yesterday, but I got stopped out. Later in the day I took a contrarian position to one of our forum members and went short NZDJPY. It was an accident, on reflection AUDNZD was probably a better play. But now I have short NZDJPY and am also in a long EURJPY from before. I'm confident in my SL in both of these and don't anticipate the BoJ announcement is going to have an affect on these trades.
Instead what I'd like to do is watch closely how USDJPY reacts to the announcement. Whichever way it goes that's how I'm going to play it, with a SL above or below the 4-hour candle (since the announcement is at the start of a new daily).
submitted by Radrezzz to Forex [link] [comments]

HOW TO TRADE CRYPTOCURRENCY: BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM CFD’S ON THE FOREX MARKET

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BITCOIN – THE DIGITAL GOLD Bitcoin is the first digital currency, created back in 2009. The main difference from traditional currencies (EUR, USD, JPY, etc) is that transactions are decentralized, highly secure, and what’s more, completely private. Bitcoin is one of the most volatile, discussed and popular instruments among cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin trading mainly happens on news, for example, a bullish trend before Bitcoin forks (this is the separation of Bitcoin when cryptocurrency owners get part of a new crypto). A bearish trend is usually seen after news regarding the ban of Bitcoin in some countries (China, for example). Bitcoin can be easily predicted using technical analysis figures, making your trading more profitable. Bitcoin is the most profitable instrument for trading in USD.
Right now, the leverage for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at OctaFX is set to 1:2, which is more than enough considering the high volatility of that instrument. Apart from that, you also can trade Bitcoin in micro lots (0.01) which allows planning your trading budget effectively. OctaFX sets the amount of 1 lot to 1 Bitcoin, which is comparatively low and requires less investment.
ETHEREUM – INVEST IN THE FUTURE Ethereum is the second most interesting instrument to trade in USD. Nowadays there are more and more ways to buy Ethereum for fiat without changing it into Bitcoins. That means that the price of Ethereum is now less dependent on the Bitcoin price compared to other cryptocurrencies. It can be considered an independent instrument.
Ethereum is a system to support smart contract technologies to invest in the ICOs of new start-up companies. The more start-ups are interested in Ethereum – the more expensive it becomes.
To analyze the price of the Ethereum it’s wise to research how many ICO contracts are about to be issued in exchange for Ethereum. Compare results with existing data – the more contracts, the higher the price. It’s also good to pay attention to news about other cryptocurrencies supporting ICOs and competing with Ethereum. The most important competitors are Waves and Bitshares. Technical analysis figures work well with Ethereum too.
Combining that information with the Ethereum’s volatility of the last few months, Ethereum can sometimes lead to more profit than with Bitcoin.
LITECOIN – CRYPTO SILVER Litecoin was first issued in 2011 and is quite similar to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin can be defined as the ‘gold’ of today’s cryptocurrencies, this makes Litecoin the ‘silver’.
Litecoin provides secure and fast transactions inside the blockchain, with the ability to purchase goods on the internet. The main difference from Bitcoin (and the central benefit of Litecoin) is the capability of processing much higher volumes in one transaction. While Bitcoin can only have up to 21 million coins, Litecoin offers four times as many – 84 million.
The Litecoin price now greatly depends on Bitcoin. That makes it possible to use the Pairs trading strategy with Bitcoin as the main currency to successfully forecast Litecoin changes.
One lot at OctaFX equals 100 Litecoin.
There’s currently a lot of talk around cryptocurrencies – some predict a fast rise and a dramatic fall, while others are confident that they are the currency of the future.
Sounds interesting? You can keep reading the hottest news and best articles on cryptocurrency, but you’ll get much closer to understanding how it works by cryptocurrency trading. So what are you waiting for? Start getting profit from crypto right now!
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/trade-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-ethereum-cfds-forex-market-485383
submitted by wcriptnews to u/wcriptnews [link] [comments]

Let's Talk Fundamentals (because they might be important this week)

This is more of a brain dump to encourage discussion, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Something strange happened this week.
Stocks fell off - mostly Japanese stocks, but equity markets everywhere suffered nasty losses. The S&P 500 shat a nasty reversal candle on Thursday, and the Nikkei posted one of its largest falls in history on Friday.
At the same time bonds fell (yields rose). The US Dollar also fell.
That's not how it's supposed to work.
When stocks fall, bond yields fall (bond prices rise) because more people buy them. Where the hell was the money going?
Into the Yen and the Swiss Franc, mostly. The Yen because most of the action was in Japan. The USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 are HEAVILY correlated. I can't tell if the fall in stocks preceded the fall in USD/JPY (and AUD/JPY, which many say led the way), or if it was the other way around, but either way we had classic risk aversion kicking in.
USD/JPY posted its largest weekly decline since 2011.
There was some jawboning, and data from Japan to suggest that the new QE measures are working.
But wait a second: they've only just started. That money hasn't really filtered down to anywhere where it's actually being used to power the economy. The only real effect so far has been a massive uplift in stocks. This is because a lot of the Nikkei 225 is made up of exporters and multi-nationals, and a falling Yen boosts their expected profits - nobody's actually made any money yet.
The technicals still only say "retracement", not "reversal", but we're hanging in by a thread - especially USD/JPY. If we break Friday's low, 100 is in sight. If this break is for real, this psychological barrier will mean absolutely nothing.
After this 97.00 is next, then 95.00/94.50, then 92. I don't think any fall would get down to 92, or even 94, but 97 is highly possible by the end of this week - and if we get there, it could be in a matter of minutes.
Before I go on, COT data
(For newbie traders, COT means Commitment of Traders, and it's a series of complicated charts showing net speculative futures positioning. When you overly it onto price data, you will find that extremes of short positioning tend to precede massive rallies. This is because a LOT of people get increasingly short as price starts to fall, which reaches an extreme as it continues to fall. Price starts to come back up, and the extreme extends a little bit more, before you get a short squeeze and everyone buys furiously to get out of unprofitable short positions)
Aussie COT showed a massive extreme in short positioning: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774559
So did the Japanese Yen: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774580
The most telling is the S&P500: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774599
The light blue line says that the big money is getting more and more out of stocks (or since it's futures positioning, they're starting to bet it will fall)
All other things being equal, this means these two are probably due a large correction. All other things might not be equal, however. Extremes in quiet times can become the norm in unusual circumstances - bear this in mind.
This is the scenario if Asian stocks lead the fall. Longs are clearly nervous, but the docket is light this week. This alone could be enough - with minor bad news sparking panic selling. The US Dollar could see some initial selling purely on USD/JPY, pushing the majors higher. This will happen during the Asian session. If it happens in the morning, you will see European markets open lower, and we might get early USD weakness as USD/JPY sells off.
But it won't last. The risk aversion will spill into European and US stocks as these markets open, and they may gap significantly lower. In this case the Swiss Franc will strengthen first, followed by the US Dollar. So I don't like USD/CHF so much here. The US Dollar will almost certainly surge once US markets open.
If this is the real deal, (and that is the biggest fucking "IF" ever because many have called this reversal lots of times and have given up after being wrong repeatedly) this dollar surge will be enormous. The world will be waking up from its dream of a fragile recovery that has been overblown by surging stock markets.
Stock markets have been rallying for mixed reasons. Some of it is investor confidence, but most of it is simply the search for yield, which most cash investments can't provide at the moment. Dividend yields in stocks are good, and fund managers have been buying them because they need to beat indices, which are rising more quickly than the values of their portfolios. This cycle has fed itself, and stocks have risen, even though demand for those companies' products and services has remained tepid.
If this happens, the Yen crosses will be blown to bits, as will the majors. But don't just go short everything if you see it falling. It will be difficult to know whether it's the real thing, and you'll have to be in front of your trading screen at the time (unless you want to set breakout orders)
We are seeing all the signs of a minor bubble bursting.
The headlines have been all about markets hitting new highs, and everybody buying stocks. That is usually a sign that the smart money has started selling their large holdings to incoming retail investors, and that a lot of the profit from the bull run has been made. If stocks start to look wobbly up here, the last ones in will be the first ones out.
Look at USD/JPY or the other Yen crosses zoomed out to 2005. The rise is absurd. I showed it to my girlfriend, who doesn't know the first thing about Forex, and she said it looked unnatural and if she had to guess, the next move would be "down a bit". This kind of woke me up a little - it was so obvious because the move up seems to be against the laws of nature, even if backed by fundamentals. Humans are good at pattern recognition, and even she could look at previous price action and recognize that a sharp rise like this almost never happens without a bit of falling.
It all depends on where you bought.
For example, if you had held USD/JPY since 92.00, and you planned to hold it for the rest of the year, you wouldn't worry so much about a drop to 97 (though it would be annoying). If you were long on a break of 100.00, you would be getting the fuck out. Your stop might be at 100, or maybe you'd locked in 50 pips. The point is that longs are now nervous, and bids will be hard to find below 100. Most people are probably prepared to take a chance buying a dip into around 100 (I know I am), but not below there.
Below there are stop losses. Hundreds of millions of them.
So that's my take on things. I'm not saying the world will end this week, but we all know that what goes up very quickly when there isn't a good reason to do so, usually comes down pretty quickly as well.
Others would argue with my fundamentals. I've seen articles saying that the rise in stocks can be attributed to companies holding on to cash reserves and paying high dividends, because they are worried that the recovery might not come. When they finally do see it coming, they will start spending that cash on growing and employing people - so maybe stocks are leading the global economy in this recovery.
I say horse shit. Demand has to precede supply, and right now the powerhouses of the global economy have more supply capacity than there is demand for. We have got into this situation because corporate profits have stayed very good during the last few years, but household incomes have fallen in real terms, and the average consumer is no better off, even though central bank governors are starting to say otherwise.
You and I are still earning far less money than we should be, and spending proportionally more and more of it every year as wage growth struggles to keep up with inflation, which is already low in most developed countries. Corporate profits continue to do well, but this money is not being spent in the real economy and used to create jobs.
I'm not going to go all marxist here for my last thoughts, but it is important to realise that there is a continuing and growing concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. They might say that they are the job creators, and many of them are. But for the most part they are the wealth hoarders. That money goes into things that cause the economy to appear to be growing, but do not actually grow the real economy - company stock, large assets, investments.
They also buy things from companies that are seeing their profits grow faster than the wages they pay. Where a dozen board executives get huge bonuses and a hundred thousand shareholders see their balance sheets grow, the people who are actually spending their portion of that company's profits (the employees) don't have any more money to inject into the economy than they did last year.
These market forces are going to collide sooner or later. Either:
I'm not saying it will happen this week, or at all. All I'm saying is that stocks are rising very quickly on not much at all. There are precedents for this throughout history, and it never ends well. When you hear hoof beats, don't think zebras.
TL;DR Forecast is choppy, with a light chance of apocalypse
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

My 2015 savings plan... (what do you think?)

Hi there,
Not so long ago, I've met cryptocurrencies and I like the idea a lot. I'm a bitcoin supporter and I think it makes a good long term investment (although I know it is not it's main purpose to be an investment vehicle but rather an exchange method/currency for the future).
Currently I'm making what I call "extra money" each month (around $200 USD I guess)... I know it is not a lot, but it's money I can save without affecting my economy. The thing is, over the years this money has been spent into banal things and for this 2015 I would like to make things differently, this is my idea:
Of those (monthly) $200 USD, I would like to put 90% into Bitcoin and 10% into Yandex.Money (RUB) each month to diversify my savings. Now, besides that money I'm talking about, someone owes me like $1,000 USD (dunno if they'll ever get paid or not) but if they are, I wanna buy YNDX Stock with them (I've never bought stock before, I'm living in México, any advice?) OR maybe enter into the FOREX market by buying either JPY/EUGBP/CNY
(Quick note: any other ideas about where can I invest those $1,000 USD if they ever get paid to me?, I've already discarded silver and gold coins because I find them hard to trade/exchange in México in order to get MXN).
Finally I'm also planning to recieve income from paid advertising on my website, and if that's successful I want to keep that income in MXN in my personal savings account.
The reason I made this savings plan is because I'm living "out of the system" (I'm an entrepreneur, not working in any company besides my emerging startup) and I want to start securing my future by having a savings/retirement fund available for when I'm older.
What do you think of my ideas? Do you have any other advice for me?
P.S. Yes, I know even in the bitcoin website they suggest that bitcoin is way to volatile to put your "life savings" into it, so that's why I'm going to experiment with my money in 2015 and see how much "financial performance" I get out of this new "bitcoin centric" plan, but do you have any beforehand forecast?
submitted by Jmlevick to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

My 2015 savings plan... (what do you think?) [cross-posted in /r/Bitcoin]

Hi there, Not so long ago, I've met cryptocurrencies and I like the idea a lot. I'm a bitcoin supporter and I think it makes a good long term investment (although I know it is not it's main purpose to be an investment vehicle but rather an exchange method/currency for the future). Currently I'm making what I call "extra money" each month (around $200 USD I guess)... I know it is not a lot, but it's money I can save without affecting my economy. The thing is, over the years this money has been spent into banal things and for this 2015 I would like to make things differently, this is my idea: Of those (monthly) $200 USD, I would like to put 90% into Bitcoin and 10% into Yandex.Money (RUB) each month to diversify my savings. Now, besides that money I'm talking about, someone owes me like $1,000 USD (dunno if they'll ever get paid or not) but if they are, I wanna buy YNDX Stock with them (I've never bought stock before, I'm living in México, any advice?) OR maybe enter into the FOREX market by buying either JPY/EUGBP/CNY (Quick note: any other ideas about where can I invest those $1,000 USD if they ever get paid to me?, I've already discarded silver and gold coins because I find them hard to trade/exchange in México in order to get MXN). Finally I'm also planning to recieve income from paid advertising on my website, and if that's successful I want to keep that income in MXN in my personal savings account. The reason I made this savings plan is because I'm living "out of the system" (I'm an entrepreneur, not working in any company besides my emerging startup) and I want to start securing my future by having a savings/retirement fund available for when I'm older. What do you think of my ideas? Do you have any other advice for me? P.S. Yes, I know even in the bitcoin website they suggest that bitcoin is way to volatile to put your "life savings" into it, so that's why I'm going to experiment with my money in 2015 and see how much "financial performance" I get out of this new "bitcoin centric" plan, but do you have any beforehand forecast?
submitted by Jmlevick to investing [link] [comments]

January FOREX Forecast on USD/JPY

First numbers of January. USD/JPY Weekly Forex forecast. The ratio of the dollar against the Japanese yen in recent years has changed a lot in the direction of the dollar. The economic situation in Japan can be read in the calendar of events of the Forex Market News. After September 13, the economic situation in Japan was shown in the chart. The formation of a new trend going on at a brisk pace. The currency pair EUUSD increased by 360 pips up to 80.70 point. And then, the currency pair went into a small correction to 79.06 and then the pair went into a small correction, and then it increased again by 760 pips to point 86.65. Ultimately, USD/JPY increased by almost one thousand pips. On the chart we will look formation of the fourth wave by Elliott. By Elliott Wave theory the fourth wave is usually a horizontal channel, or another flat. The fourth wave can down to maximum of first wave down to point 80.70. And after that moving maybe growing up higher than USD/JPY - 89.30. We recommend opening the transaction after the fourth wave on timeframe Daily. It is possible that when the fourth wave is below the first wave - then you have to follow the formation of a new downwards trend. More here
www,takemoney.org
submitted by takemoney-org to Forex [link] [comments]

USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast April 6, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast March 27, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast April 1, 2020 Forex Forecast October 2020  EUR USD JPY GBP Analysis ... UPDATE Forex Forecast October 2020  EUR USD JPY GBP ... USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast February 14, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast March 12, 2020

Latest News. USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Levitates Against Yen. moments ago Christopher Lewis Technical Analysis AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Consolidation Above 0.7248. 19 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis BTC/USD Forex Signal: Still Bullish. 19 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis GBP/USD Forex Signal: Another New 2-Month High. 19 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis Subscribe ... Latest USD market news, analysis and US Dollar trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team. USD/JPY Forecast. Charts, Outlook, Current Trading Positions and Technical Analysis on USD/JPY for Today, this Week, this Month and this Quarter. Professional Predictions from our Forex Experts. Browsing: USD JPY Forecast. USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 9-13 – Yen rises to 8-month high. By Kenny Fisher on Nov 8, 2020. Dollar/yen dropped sharply last week, as the US election drama resulted in broad losses for the US dollar. The pair fell to a weekly low of 103.17, its lowest level since early February. There are no major releases out of Japan in the upcoming week. In the US, the focus will be ... Our USD JPY Forecast depends on many factors about the economies and USD JPY News of Japan and the US to give you accurate signals. According to a recent survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, the USD/JPY pair represented a total of 17% of the total daily forex market volume. The USD/JPY is sometimes used as a determinant of the market risk. In doing the usd jpy forecast, we look at all the usd jpy news and watch to see how the market reacts. However, there is more to this than looking at the usd jpy news. Check our updated for USDJPY News including real time updates, forecast, technical analysis and the economic latest events from the best source of Forex News. Latest JPY market news, analysis and Japanese Yen trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team. News & Analysis at your fingertips. Install . We use a range of cookies to give ... Economies.com provides the latest technical analysis of the USD/JPY (Dollar Japanese Yen). You may find the analysis on a daily basis with forecasts for the global daily trend. You may also find live updates around the clock if any major changes occur in the currency pair. USD/JPY Forecast (Japanese Yen), News & Analysis In our USD JPY section of the Japanese Yen exchange rate forecast, we offer for traders an up-to-date trade forecast for USD/JPY, an original analysis and forecast of the Japanese yen rate for today as part of the analysis of the current situation on the FOREX market with simple tools.

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USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast April 6, 2020

Robert Kiyosaki: Market Crash is COMING!! How To Get Rich + Buy Gold and Silver Rich Dad Poor Dad - Duration: 51:52. I LOVE PROSPERITY 132,627 views Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, XAUUSD (March 16 – 20, 2020) - Duration: 14:01. Justin Bennett 9,812 views LIVE Forex Trading - LONDON, Thu, Mar, 5th Trade With Monty 361 watching Live now AUD/USD Technical Analysis for February 14, 2020 by FXEmpire - Duration: 1:27. Last week the forex Euro/Dollar pair found a bid at 1.1610, which is a rather significant level for the Euro. Forex monthly charts dating back to 2016 will t... The forex market is jittering with anticipation ahead of the possible US fiscal stimulus package. The forex Euro/Dollar pair has been steadily advancing as t... Bat Pattern Forex - Better Risk/Reward Ratios With This Simple Pattern - Duration: 7:24. How To Trade Forex 48,940 views Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY, XAUUSD (April 6 – 10, 2020) - Duration: 14:50. Justin Bennett 14,047 views

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