Price Action Breakout - Broker Forex Terbaik

[Strategies] Here is My Trading Approach, Thought Process and Execution

Hello everyone. I've noticed a lot of us here are quite secretive about how we trade, especially when we comment on a fellow trader's post. We're quick to tell them what they're doing isn't the "right way" and they should go to babypips or YouTube. There's plenty of strategies we say but never really tell them what is working for us. There's a few others that are open to share their experience and thought processes when considering a valid trade. I have been quite open myself. But I'm always met with the same "well I see what you did is quite solid but what lead you to deem this trade valid for you? "
The answer is quite simple, I have a few things that I consider which are easy rules to follow. I realized that the simpler you make it, the easier it is for you to trade and move on with your day.
I highlight a few "valid" zones and go about my day. I've got an app that alerts me when price enters the zone on my watchlist. This is because I don't just rely on forex trading money, I doubt it would be wise to unless you're trading a 80% win rate strategy. Sometimes opportunities are there and we exploit them accordingly but sometimes we are either distracted by life issues and decide to not go into the markets stressed out or opportunities just aren't there or they are but your golden rules aren't quite met.
My rules are pretty simple, one of the prime golden rules is, "the risk is supposed to be very minimal to the reward I want to yield from that specific trade". i.e I can risk -50 pips for a +150 and more pips gain. My usual target starts at 1:2 but my most satisfying trade would be a 1:3 and above. This way I can lose 6/10 trades and still be profitable.
I make sure to keep my charts clean and simple so to understand what price does without the interference of indicators all over my charts. Not to say if you use indicators for confluence is a complete no-no. Each trader has their own style and I would be a narcissistic asshole if I assumed my way is superior than anybody else's.
NB: I'm doing this for anybody who has a vague or no idea of supply and demand. Everything here has made me profitable or at least break even but doesn't guarantee the same for you. This is just a scratch on the surface so do all you can for due diligence when it comes to understanding this topic with more depth and clear comprehension.
Supply and Demand valid zones properties; what to me makes me think "oh this zone has the potential to make me money, let me put it on my watchlist"? Mind when I say watchlist, not trade it. These are different in this sense.
👉With any zone, you're supposed to watch how price enters the zone, if there's a strong push in the opposite direction or whatever price action you're observing...only then does the zone becomes valid. YOU TRADE THE REACTION, NOT THE EXPECTATION Some setups just fail and that's okay because you didn't gamble. ✍
!!!IMPORTANT SUBJECT TO LEARN BEFORE YOU START SUPPLY AND DEMAND!!!
FTR. Failure to Return.(Please read on these if you haven't. They are extremely important in SnD). Mostly occur after an impulse move from a turning point. See attached examples: RBR(rally base rally)/DBD(drop base drop). They comprise of an initial move to a certain direction, a single candle in the opposite direction and followed by 2 or more strong candles in the initial direction. The opposite candle is your FTR(This is your zone) The first time price comes back(FTB) to a zone with an FTR has high possibilities to be a strong zone.
How to identify high quality zones according to my approach:
  1. Engulfing zones; This is a personal favorite. For less errors I identify the best opportunities using the daily and 4H chart.
On the example given, I chose the GBPNZD trade idea I shared here a month ago I believe. A double bottom is easily identified, with the final push well defined Bullish Engulfing candle. To further solidify it are the strong wicks to show strong rejection and failure to close lower than the left shoulder. How we draw our zone is highlight the whole candle just before the Engulfing Candle. That's your zone. After drawing it, you also pay attention to the price that is right where the engulfing starts. You then set a price alert on your preferred app because usually price won't get there immediately. This is the second most important part of trading, PATIENCE. If you can be disciplined enough to not leave a limit order, or place a market order just because you trust your analysis...you've won half the battle because we're not market predictors, we're students. And we trade the reaction.
On the given example, price had already reached the zone of interest. Price action observed was, there was a rejection that drove it out of the zone, this is the reaction we want. Soon as price returns(retests)...this is your time to fill or kill moment, going to a 4H or 1H to make minimum risk trades. (See GBPNZD Example 1&2)
  1. Liquidity Run; This approach looks very similar to the Engulfing zones. The difference is, price makes a few rejections on a higher timeframe level(Resistance or support). This gives the novice trader an idea that we've established a strong support or resistance, leading to them either selling or buying given the opportunity. Price then breaks that level trapping the support and resistance trader. At this point, breakout traders have stop orders below or above these levels to anticipate a breakout at major levels with stops just below the levels. Now that the market has enough traders trapped, it goes for the stop losses above or below support and resistance levels after taking them out, price comes back into the level to take out breakout traders' stop losses. This is where it has gathered enough liquidity to move it's desired direction.
The given example on the NZDJPY shows a strong level established twice. With the Bearish Engulfing movement, price leaves a supply zone...that's where we come in. We go to smaller timeframes for a well defined entry with our stops above the recent High targeting the next demand zone.
The second screenshot illustrates how high the reward of this approach is as well. Due diligence is required for this kind of approach because it's not uncommon but usually easily misinterpreted, which is why it's important it's on higher timeframes.
You can back test and establish your own rules on this but the RSI in this case was used for confluence. It showed a strong divergence which made it an even easier trade to take.
...and last but definitely not least,
  1. Double Bottom/Top. (I've used double bottoms on examples because these are the only trades I shared here so we'll talk about double bottoms. Same but opposite rules apply on double tops).
The first most important rule here is when you look to your left, price should have made a Low, High and a Lower Low. This way, the last leg(shoulder) should be lower than the first. Some call this "Hidden Zones". When drawing the zones, the top border of the zone is supposed to be on the tip of the Low and covering the Lower Low. **The top border is usually the entry point.
On the first given example I shared this week, NZDCAD. After identifying the structure, you start to look for zones that could further verify the structure for confluence. Since this was identified on the 4H, when you zoom out to the daily chart...there's a very well defined demand zone (RBR). By now you should know how strong these kind of zones are especially if found on higher timeframes. That will now be your kill zone. You'll draw another zone within the bigger zone, if price doesn't close below it...you've got a trade. You'll put your stop losses outside the initial zone to avoid wicks(liquidity runs/stop hunts)
On the second image you'll see how price closed within the zone and rallied upwards towards your targets.
The second example is CHFJPY; although looking lower, there isn't a rally base rally that further solidifies our bias...price still respected the zone. Sometimes we just aren't going to get perfect setups but it is up to us to make calculated risks. In this case, risk is very minimal considering the potential profit.
The third example (EURNZD) was featured because sometimes you just can't always get perfect price action within your desired zone. Which is why it's important to wait for price to close before actually taking a trade. Even if you entered prematurely and were taken out of the trade, the rules are still respected hence a re entry would still yield you more than what you would have lost although revenge trading is wrong.
I hope you guys learnt something new and understand the thought process that leads to deciding which setups to trade from prepared supply and demand trade ideas. It's important to do your own research and back testing that matches your own trading style. I'm more of a swing trader hence I find my zones using the Daily and 4H chart. Keeping it simple and trading the reaction to your watched zone is the most important part about trading any strategy.
Important Note: The trade ideas on this post are trades shared on this sub ever since my being active only because I don't want to share ideas that I may have carefully picked to make my trading approach a blind pick from the millions on the internet. All these were shared here.
Here's a link to the trade ideas analyzed for this post specifically
Questions are welcome on the comments section. Thank you for reading till here.
submitted by SupplyAndDemandGuy to Forex [link] [comments]

I was creating photos including trading tips and then I collected it to write an article on those tips !

I have so far created tips on strategies like • Price Action Trading • Range Trading Startegy • Trend Trading Startegy • Position Trading • Day Trading Startegy
Price Action Trading :-
This type of trading strategy involves the study of historical prices to formulate technical trading strategies. It is used by retail traders, speculators, arbitrageurs and trading firms who employ traders.
Range Trading Startegy :-
This strategy works well in market without significant volatility and no discernible trend. Technical analysis is the primary tool used with this strategy. Markets trends about 30% of the time which means the other 70% is a trading range.
Trend Trading Startegy :-
Trend trading attempts to yield positive returns by exploiting markets directional momentum.
Position Trading :-
This is a long-term strategy primarily focused on fundamental factors.This strategy can be employed on all markets from stocks to forex.
Day Trading Startegy :-
This is a strategy made to trade financial instruments within the same trading day. Its one of the most famous trading strategies.
All these strategies are available on this source with pictures :- https://jaskaransaini.com/forex-trading-tips-with-pictures/
Indicator Basics are also here !
Indicator Basics
MACD- BUY/SELL SIGNAL
RSI- OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
BOLLINGER BANDS- VOLATILITY LEVELS
9 EMA- SHORT TERM TREND
21 EMA- ENTRY/EXIT POINTS
50 EMA- PLACE STOP LOSS
200 EMA- LONG TERM TREND
VWAP- INTRADAY BREAKOUTS
ADX- STRENGTH OF THE TREND
submitted by lazymentors to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Top Strategies that I Kno & Indicator Basics

• PRICE ACTION TRADING
RANGE TRADING STRATEGY
TREND TRADING STRATEGY
POSITION TRADING
DAY TRADING STRATEGY
Indicator Basics
MACD- BUY/SELL SIGNAL
RSI- OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
BOLLINGER BANDS- VOLATILITY LEVELS
9 EMA- SHORT TERM TREND
21 EMA- ENTRY/EXIT POINTS
50 EMA- PLACE STOP LOSS
200 EMA- LONG TERM TREND
VWAP- INTRADAY BREAKOUTS
ADX- STRENGTH OF THE TREND
Price Action Trading :- This type of trading strategy involves the study of historical prices to formulate technical trading strategies. It is used by retail traders, speculators, arbitrageurs and trading firms who employ traders.
Range Trading Startegy :- This strategy works well in market without significant volatility and no discernible trend. Technical analysis is the primary tool used with this strategy. Markets trends about 30% of the time which means the other 70% is a trading range.
Trend Trading Startegy :- Trend trading attempts to yield positive returns by exploiting markets directional momentum.
Position Trading :- This is a long-term strategy primarily focused on fundamental factors.This strategy can be employed on all markets from stocks to forex.
Day Trading Startegy :- This is a strategy made to trade financial instruments within the same trading day. Its one of the most famous trading strategies.
Source :- https://jaskaransaini.com/forex-trading-tips-with-pictures/?_gl=1%2Aks9kf3%2A_ga%2AYW1wLVNDZWZTcnlrbXdONGJ3UlBFSUVfWWc.
Above article include trading strategy with pictures , please if you know another strategy. Please tell that in comments and make me know !
submitted by lazymentors to options [link] [comments]

Biweekly Trading Update #3: Trading without Indicators

Over the weekend my trading strategy changed drastically. At first I decided to let indicators completely rule my trading strategy; however, I quickly ran into issues with that ideology. My trading turned into gambling, and could easily be replicated by a simple program. To combat this issue I pushed back-testing indicators from the prior weekend to after I solidify my technical, sentimental, and fundamental analysis. I started learning Naked Forex, order flow analysis, and price action analysis over the weekend, and have started practicing them during the weekday. Although my win percentage is fairly low, I found that my analysis is getting stronger with each trade I take.
My first trade was on the 30 min EUUSD chart. I saw that the market was entering an ascending triangle and started to expect a bullish breakout. I looked at the market sentiment on fxdaily, and saw that most of the market was bearish. I assumed that the bearish presence in the market were the retail traders, and assumed that the market would move in the opposite direction of their expectations. I used order flow analysis to find the momentum and projection of the market, and ended up placing a buy stop in order to catch the market on the expected breakout. One thing I did not factor was multiple time frame analysis. I did not see that the market had entered a channel, and that I placed a trade when it had hit the resistance level. The price reached my buy stop, but proceeded to drop until it hit my stop loss.
As I went back to analyze my technical analysis, I found that I misread the order flow. I also realized that there were many parts of technical analysis that I didn't factor in, such as multiple time frame analysis, major support/resistance levels, and Fibonacci levels. I also decided to take more precaution when looking at the market sentiment, and try back-testing that data before basing another trade off of it.
Although this trade was a loser, I still learned a great deal from it, and feel like I benefited more than my previous trades. The chart analysis was tough to begin, but progressively got easier as I looked for more and more trades. For the time being I decided to stick with the EUUSD, and exclusively look for repeating market behavior and reactions in order to strengthen my market sense and improve my technical analysis before I start back-testing and using indicators. I also have started to pay more attention to candlestick patterns and their link to trend behavior.
Overall I believe that improving my technical analysis is a step in the right direction for my trading journey. I finally feel like i'm trading with my own mind rather than being overly reliant on the indicators on my chart.
submitted by Aman-1127 to Forex [link] [comments]

GBPUSD Short trade update

GBPUSD Short trade update
Well this weeks price Action has confirmed that sellers are still willing to sell at this supply zone identified from the weekly chart. My orders got filled with average price of 1.32097. My stop still needs to be above the recent highs in case there is a re-tracement to test the high. I'll be looking to move to a profit stop if price makes structure towards my downside target. I'll be watching price Action against this down sloping Action/Reaction line set as test of these lines progress. I'm expecting this move to play out over 3 months so I have time to be patient. If price moves against me and takes me out, no big deal, it's just one stop...
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/i92hcf/gbpusd_watch_a_breakout_and_retest_on_the/g1edael?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/i7pk9m/i_think_gbpusd_is_actually_going_up_this_time_if/g16qr42?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://preview.redd.it/0vsofuewg8m51.jpg?width=2095&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a122a37d51644bc1855e70ec5ffb4770d3e6c84b
submitted by ForexSan to Forex [link] [comments]

my dilemma on what to do with my trading

I just started forex last june and I'm currently down 50% of my capital. should I read books about technical analysis like the book of al brooks about price action trend, ranging, and breakout. should I understand the Japanese Candle Stick? I'm currently in dilemma what on what to do. If I'll go to youtube some says it's best to use pure indicator and some youtuber will say price action is enough. I also think I lack patience when the trade is ongoing. I kept on watching the chart and my account if its positive or negative. As I reflect during this month, I don't have a strategy and i just decide base on my feeling about the market. Do you guys have a recommendation what to read? I plan to stick with price action with less than 5 indicators
submitted by PusangKuryos to Forex [link] [comments]

So you wanna trade Forex? - tips and tricks inside

Let me just sum some stuff up for you newbies out there. Ive been trading for years, last couple of years more seriously and i turned my strategies into algorithms and i am currently up to 18 algorithms thats trading for me 24/7. Ive learned alot, listened to hundreds of podcasts and read tons of books + research papers and heres some tips and tricks for any newbie out there.

  1. Strategy - How to... When people say "you need a trading strategy!!" Its because trading is very hard and emotional. You need to stick to your rules at all times. Dont panic and move your stop loss or target unless your rules tell you to. Now how do you make these rules? Well this is the part that takes alot of time. If your rules are very simple (for example: "Buy if Last candles low was the lowest low of the past 10 candles." Lets make this a rule. You can backtest it manually by looking at a chart and going back in time and check every candle. or you can code it using super simple software like prorealtime, MT4 ++ Alot of software is basicly "click and drag" and press a button and it gives you backtest from 10-20-30 years ago in 5 seconds. This is the absolute easiest way to backtest rules and systems. If your trading "pure price action" with your drawn lines and shit, the only way to truly backtest that kind of trading is going in a random forex pair to a random point in time, could be 1 year ago, 1 month ago, 5 years ago.. and then you just trade! Move chart 1 candle at a time, draw your lines and do some "actual trading" and look at your results after moving forward in the chart. If you do not test your strategy your just going in blind, which could be disaster.. Maybe someone told u "this is the correct way to trade" or "this strategy is 90% sure to win every trade!!!" If you think you can do trading without a strategy, then your most likely going to look back at an empty account and wonder why you moved that stop loss or why you didnt take profit etc.. and then your gonna give up. People on youtube, forums, interwebz are not going to give you/sell you a working strategy thats gonna make you rich. If they had a working strategy, they would not give it away/sell it to you.
  2. Money management - How to.... Gonna keep this one short. Risk a small % of your capital on each trade. Dont risk 10%, dont risk 20%. You are going to see loosing trades, your probably gonna see 5-10 loss in a row!! If your trading a 1000$ account and your risking 100$ on each trade (10%) and you loose 5 in a row, your down -50% and probably you cant even trade cus of margin req. Game over.. Now how does one get super rich, super fast, from risking 1-3% of your account on each trade?? Well heres the shocking message: YOU CANT GET RICH FAST FROM TRADING UNLESS YOUR WILLING TO GO ALL IN! You can of course go all in on each trade and if you get em all right, you might get 1000%, then you go all in 1 more time and loose it all... The whole point of trading is NOT going bust. Not loosing everything, cus if you loose it all its game over and no more trading for you.
  3. Find your own trading style.... Everyone is different. You can have an average holding period of 1 month or you could be looking at a 1 min chart and average holding time = 10 minutes. For some, less volatility helps them sleep at night. For others, more volatility gives them a rush and some people crave this. There is no "correct" timeframes, or holding periods, or how much to profit or how much to loose. We are all individuals with different taste in risk. Some dont like risk, others wanna go all in to get rich over night. The smart approach is somewhere in the middle. If you dont risk anything, your not gonna get anything. If you risk everything, your most likely going to loose everything. When people are talking about trading style, this is kinda what that means.
  4. There are mainly 2 ways to trade: Divergence and Convergence. Or in other words: Mean reversion or trend following. Lets talk about them both: Trend following is trying to find a trend and stay with the trend until its over. Mean reversion is the belief that price is too far away from the average XX of price, and sooner or later, price will have to return to its average/mean (hence the name: MEAN reversion). Trend following systems usually see a lower winrate (30-40% winrate with no money management is not uncommon to see when backtesting trend following systems.. You can add good money management to get the winrate % higher. Why is the % winrate so low? Well a market, whatever that market is, tend to get real choppy and nasty right after a huge trend. So your gonna see alot of choppy fake signals that might kill 5-6 trades in a row, until the next huge trend starts which is going to cover all the losses from the small losses before the trend took off. Then you gotta hold that trade until trade is done. How do you define "when trend starts and stops"? Well thats back to point 1, find a strategy. Try defining rules for an entry and exit and see how it goes when you backtest it. For mean reversion the win % is usually high, like 70-90% winrate, but the average winning trade is alot smaller than the average loosing trade. this happens because you are basicly trying to catch a falling knife, or catch a booming rocket. Usually when trading mean reversion, waiting for price to actually reverse can very often leave you with being "too late", so you kinda have to find "the bottom" or "the top" before it actually has bottomed/ topped out and reversed. How can you do this you ask? Well your never going to hit every top or every bottom, but you can find ways to find "the bottom-ish" or "the top-ish", thens ell as soon as price reverts back to the mean. Sometimes your gonna wish you held on to the trade for longer, but again, back to point 1: Backtest your rules and figure that shit out.

Read these 4 points and try to follow them and you are at least 4 steps closer to being a profitable trader. Some might disagree with me on some points but i think for the majority, people are going to agree that these 4 points are pretty much universal. Most traders have done or are doing these things every day, in every trade.
Here is some GREAT material to read: Kevin Davey has won trading championship multiple times and he has written multiple great books, from beginner to advanced level. Recommend these books 100%, for example: Building winning algorithmic trading systems" will give you alot to work with when it comes to all 4 of the above points. Market wizards, Reminiscences of a stock operator are 2 books that are a great read but wont give you much "trading knowledge" that you can directly use for your trading. Books on "The turtles" are great reading. Then you have podcasts and youtube. I would stay away from youtube as much as possible when it comes to "Heres how to use the rsi!!!" or "this strategy will make you rich!!". Most youtube videoes are made by people who wanna sell you a course or a book. Most of this is just pure bullshit. Youtube can very harmfull and i would honestly advice about going there for "strategy adivce" and such. Podcasts tho are amazing, i highly recommend: Better systems trader, Chat with traders, Top traders unplugged, We study billionairs, to name a few :)
Also, on a less funny note.. Please realize that you are, and i am, real fucking stupid and lazy compared to the actual pro's out there. This is why you should not go "all in" on some blind stupid strategy youve heard about. This is why this is indeed VERY FUCKING HARD and most, if not everyone has busted an account or two before realizing just this. Your dumb.. your not going to be super rich within 1 year.. You can not start with 500$ account and make millions! (some might have been able to do this, but know that for every winner, theres 999 loosers behind him that failed... Might work fine first 5 trades, then 1 fuckup tho and ur gone..
And lastly: Try using a backtesting software. Its often FREE!!! (on a demo account) and often so simple a baby could use it. If your trading lines and such there exists web broweser "games" and softwares that lets you go "1 and 1 candle ahead" in random forex pairs and that lets you trade as if its "real" as it goes.
A big backtesting trap however is backtesting "losely" by just drawing lines and looking at chart going "oh i would have taken this trade FOR SURE!! I would have made so much money!!" however this is not actually backtesting, its cherry picking and its biased beyond the grave, and its going to hurt you. Try going 1 candle at a time doing "real and live" trades and see how it goes.

Bonus point!!
many people misunderstands what indicators like the RSI is telling you. Indeed something is "overbought" or "oversold" but only compared to the last average of xx amounts of bars/candles.
It doesn't tell you that RIGHT NOW is a great time to sell or buy. It only tells you that the math formula that is RSI, gives you a number between 1-100, and when its above 70 its telling you that momentum is up compared to the last average 14 candles. This is not a complete buy/sell signal. Its more like a filter if anything. This is true for MOST indicators. They INDICATE stuff. Dont use them as pure buy/sell signals.. At least backtest that shit first! Your probably gonna be shocked at the shitty results if you "buy wehn rsi is undeer 30 and sell when RSI is above 70".

Editedit: Huge post already, why not copy paste my comment with an example showing the difference in trend following vs mean reversion:
The thing about trend following is that we never know when a trade starts and when it ends. So what often happens is that you have to buy every breakout going up, but not every breakout is a new trend. Lets do an example. Check out the photo i included here: https://imageshost.eu/image/image.RcC

THE PHOTO IS JUST AN EXAMPLE THAT SHOWS WHY A TYPICAL TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY HAVE A "LOW" WINRATE.
THE PHOTO IS NOT SHOWING AN EXAMPLE OF MY STRATEGIES OR TRADING.

  1. We identify the big orange trend up.
  2. We see the big break down (marked with the vertical red line) this is telling us we are not going higher just yet. Our upwards trend is broken. However we might continue going up in a new trend, but when will that trend come?
  3. We can draw the blue trend very earyly using highs and lows, lines up and down. Then we begin to look for breakouts of the upper blue line. So every time price breaks upper blue line we have to buy (cus how else are we going to "catch the next trend going up?)
As you can see we get 5 false breakouts before the real breakout happens!
Now if you could tell fake breakouts from real breakouts, your gonna be rich hehe. For everyone else: Take every signal you can get, put a "tight" stop loss so in case its a fake signal you only loose a little bit. Then when breakout happens as you can clearly see in chart, your going to make back all the small losses.
So in this example we fail 5 times, but get 1 HUGE new trend going further up. This 1 huge trade, unless we fuck it up and take profits too early or shit like that, is going to win back all those small losses + more.
This is why trend following has a low winrate. You get 5 small loss and 1 big win.

Now lets flip this! Imagine if your trading Mean reversion on all the same red arrows! So every time price hits the blue line, we go short back to the bottom (or middle) again! You would have won 5 trades with small profits, but on that last one you would get stopped out so hard. Meaning 5 small wins, 1 big loss (as some have pointed out in comments, if you where trading mean reverting you would wanna buy the lows as well as short the tops - photo was suppose to show why trend following strategies have a lower % winrate.)

Final edit: sorry this looks like a wall of text on ur phones.
submitted by RipRepRop to Forex [link] [comments]

I am a professional Day Trader working for a Prop Fund, Hope I can help people out and answer some questions

Howdy all, I work professionally for a proprietary trading fund, and have worked for quite a few in my time, hope I can offer some insights on trading etc you guys might have.
Bonus for you guys
Here are the columns in my trading journal and various explanations where appropriate:
Trade Number – Simply is this the first trade of the year? The 10th?, The 50th? I count a trade
that you opened and closed just one trade number. For example if you buy EUUSD today and
sell it 50 pips later in the day and close out the trade, then that is just one trade for recording
purposes. I do not create a second trade number to describe the exit. Both the entry and exit are
under the same trade number.


Ticket Number – This is ticket number / order ID number that your broker gives you for the trade
on your platform.


Day of the Week – This would be simply the day of the week the trade was initiated


Financial Instrument / Currency Pair – Whatever Financial Instrument or currency pair you are
trading. If you are trading EUUSD, put EUUSD. If you are trading the EuroFX futures
contract, then put in Euro FX. If you are trading the emini S&P, then put in Emini S&P 500. If
you are trading a stock, put in the ticker symbol. Etc.


Buy/Sell or Long/Short – Did you buy or sell to open the new trade? If you bought something to
open the trade, then write in either BUY or LONG. If you sold(shorted) something to open a
trade, then write in SOLD, or SHORT. This is a personal preference. Some people like to put in
their journals as BUY/SELL. Other people like to write in Long/Short. My preference is for
writing in long/short, since that is the more professional way to say it. I like to use the lingo
where possible.


Order Type – Market or Limit – When you entered the trade was it a market order or limit order?
Some people can enter a trade using a combination of market and limit orders. If you enter a
trade for $1 million half of which was market order and the other half was limit order, then you
can write in $500,000 Market, $500,000 Limit as a bullet points.


Position Size / Units / Contracts / Shares – How big was the total trade you entered? If you
bought 1 standard lot of a currency pair, then write in $100,000 or 1 standard lot. If you bought 5
gold futures contracts, then write in 5 contracts. If you bought 1,000 shares of stock, then write
in 1,000 shares. Etc.


Entry Price – The entry price you received entering your opening position. If you entered at
multiple prices, then you can either write in all the different fills you got, or specify the average
price received.


Entry Date – Date that you entered the position. For example January 23, 2012. Or you can
write in 1/23/12

.
Entry Time – Time that you opened the position. If it is multiple positions, then you can specify
each time for each various fill, or you can specify the time range. For example if you got
$100,000 worth of EUUSD filled at 3:00 AM EST, and another $100,000 filled at 3:05 and
another $100,000 filled at 3:25, then you can write all those in, or you can specify a range of 3:00
– 3:30 AM EST.


Entry Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
pips. If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Entry Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Stop Loss Size – How big is your stop loss size? If you are trading a currency pair, then you
write in the pips. If you are trading the S&P futures contract, then write in the number of points.
If you are trading a stock, then write in how many cents or dollars your stop is away from your
entry price.


% Risk – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much % loss of your equity is that?
This is where you input your risk per trade expressed in % terms if you use such a position sizing
method. If you risked 0.50% of your account on the trade, then put in 0.50%


Risk in dollars – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much loss in dollars is that. For
example if you have a $100,000 account and you risked 1% on a trade, then write in $1,000
dollars


Potential Reward: Risk Ratio – This is a column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what
the potential reward risk ratio of the trade is. If you are trading using a 100 pip stop and you
expect that the market can reasonably move 300 pips, then you can write in 3:1. Of course this is
an interesting column because you can look at it after the trade is finished and see how close you
were or how far removed from reality your initial projections were.


Potential Win Rate – This is another column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what you
believe the potential win rate of this trade is. If you were to place this trade 10 times in a row,
how many times do you think you would win? I write it in as percentage terms. If you believe
the trade has a 50% chance to win, then write in 50%.


Type of Inefficiency – This is where you write in what type of inefficiency you are looking to
capture. I use the word inefficiency here. I believe it is important to think of trading setups as
inefficiencies. If you think in terms of inefficiencies, then you will think in terms of the market
being mispriced, then you will think about the reasons why the market is mispriced and why such
market expectations for example are out of alignment with reality. In this category I could write
in different types of trades such as fading the stops, different types of news trades, expecting
stops to get tripped, betting on sentiment intensifying, betting on sentiment reversing, etc. I do
not write in all the reasons why I took the trade in this column. I do that in another column. This
column is just to broadly define what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture.


Chart Time Frame – I do not use this since all my order flow based trades have nothing to do
with what chart time frame I look at. However, if you are a chartist or price action trader, then
you may want to include what chart time frame you found whatever pattern you were looking at.


Exit Price – When you exit your trade, you enter the price you received here.


Exit Date – The date you exited your trade.


Exit Time – The time you exited your trade.


Trade Duration – In hours, minutes, days or weeks. If the trade lasts less than an hour, I will
usually write in the duration in minutes. Anything in between 1 and 48 hours, I write in the hours
amount. Anything past that and I write it as days or weeks as appropriate, etc.
Pips the trade went against you before turning into a winner – If you have a trade that suffered a
draw down, but did not stop you out and eventually was a winner, then you write it how many
pips the trade went against you before it turned into a profitable trade. The reason you have this
column is to compare it to your stop loss size and see any patterns that emerge. If you notice that
a lot of your winning trades suffer a big draw down and get near your stop loss points but turn out
to be a profitable trade, then you can further refine your entry strategy to get in a better price.


Slippage on the Exit – If you get stopped out for a loss, then you write in how many pips you
suffered as slippage, if any. For example if you are long EUUSD at 1.2500 and have your stop
loss at 1.2400 and the market drops and you get filled at 1.2398, then you would write in -2 pips
slippage. In other words you lost 2 pips as slippage. This is important for a few different
reasons. Firstly, you want to see if the places you put your stop at suffer from slippage. If they
do, perhaps you can get better stop loss placement, or use it as useful information to find new
inefficiencies. Secondly, you want to see how much slippage your broker is giving you. If you
are trading the same system with different brokers, then you can record the slippage from each
one and see which has the lowest slippage so you can choose them.


Profit/Loss -You write in the profit and/or loss in pips, cents, points, etc as appropriate. If you
bought EUUSD at 1.2500 and sell it at 1.2550, you made 50 pips, so write in +50 pips. If you
bought a stock at $50 and you sell it at $60, then write in +$10. If you buy the S&P futures at
1,250 and sell them at 1,275, then write in +25 points. If you buy the GBP/USD at 1.5000 and
you sell it at 1.4900, then write in -100 pips. Etc. I color code the box background to green for
profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss In Dollars – You write the profit and/or loss in dollars (or euros, or jpy, etc whatever
currency your account is denominated in). If you are long $100,000 of EUUSD at 1.2500 and
sell it at 1.2600, then write in +$1,000. If you are short $100,000 GBP/USD at 1.5900 and it
rises to 1.6000 and you cover, then write in -$1,000. I color code the box background to green
for profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss as % of your account – Write in the profit and/or loss as % of your account. If a trade
made you 2% of your account, then write in +2%. If a trade lost 0.50%, then write in -0.50%. I
color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss.


Reward:Risk Ratio or R multiple: If the trade is a profit, then write in how many times your risk
did it pay off. If you risked 0.50% and you made 1.00%, then write in +2R or 2:1 or 2.0. If you
risked 0.50% and a trade only makes 0.10%, then write in +0.20R or 0.2:1 or 0.2. If a trade went
for a loss that is equal to or less than what you risked, then I do not write in anything. If the loss
is greater than the amount you risked, then I do write it in this column. For example lets say you
risk 0.50% on a stock, but overnight the market gaps and you lose 1.50% on a trade, then I would
write it in as a -3R.


What Type of trading loss if the trade lost money? – This is where I describe in very general
terms a trade if it lost money. For example, if I lost money on a trade and the reason was because
I was buying in a market that was making fresh lows, but after I bought the market kept on going
lower, then I would write in: “trying to pick a bottom.” If I tried shorting into a rising uptrend
and I take a loss, then I describe it as “trying to pick a top.” If I am buying in an uptrend and buy
on a retracement, but the market makes a deeper retracement or trend change, then I write in
“tried to buy a ret.” And so on and so forth. In very general terms I describe it. The various
ways I use are:
• Trying to pick a bottom
• Trying to pick a top
• Shorting a bottom
• Buying a top
• Shorting a ret and failed
• Wrongly predicted news
• Bought a ret and failed
• Fade a resistance level
• Buy a support level
• Tried to buy a breakout higher
• Tried to short a breakout lower
I find this category very interesting and important because when performing trade journal
analysis, you can notice trends when you have winners or losing trades. For example if I notice a
string of losing trades and I notice that all of them occur in the same market, and all of them have
as a reason: “tried to pick a bottom”, then I know I was dumb for trying to pick a bottom five
times in a row. I was fighting the macro order flow and it was dumb. Or if I notice a string of
losers and see that I tried to buy a breakout and it failed five times in a row, but notice that the
market continued to go higher after I was stopped out, then I realize that I was correct in the
move, but I just applied the wrong entry strategy. I should have bought a retracement, instead of
trying to buy a fresh breakout.


That Day’s Weaknesses (If any) – This is where I write in if there were any weaknesses or
distractions on the day I placed the trade. For example if you are dead tired and place a trade,
then write in that you were very tired. Or if you place a trade when there were five people
coming and out of your trading office or room in your house, then write that in. If you placed the
trade when the fire alarm was going off then write that in. Or if you place a trade without having
done your daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible weakness
that threw you off your game.


That Day’s Strengths (If any) – Here you can write in what strengths you had during the day you
placed your trade. If you had complete peace and quiet, write that in. If you completed all your
daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible strength during the
day.


How many Open Positions Total (including the one you just placed) – How many open trades do
you have after placing this one? If you have zero open trades and you just placed one, then the
total number of open positions would be one, so write in “1.” If you have on three open trades,
and you are placing a new current one, then the total number of open positions would be four, so
write in “4.” The reason you have this column in your trading journal is so that you can notice
trends in winning and losing streaks. Do a lot of your losing streaks happen when you have on a
lot of open positions at the same time? Do you have a winning streak when the number of open
positions is kept low? Or can you handle a lot of open positions at the same time?


Exit Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in pips.
If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Exit Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Total Spread Cost (in pips) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in pips.


Total Spread Cost (in dollars) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in dollars.


Commission Cost – Here you write in the total commission cost that you incurred for getting in
and out of the trade. If you have a forex broker that is commission free and only gets
compensated through the spread, then you do not need this column.


Starting Balance – The starting account balance that you had prior to the placing of the trade


Interest/swap – If you hold forex currency pairs past the rollover, then you either get interest or
need to pay out interest depending on the rollover rates. Or if you bought a stock and got a
dividend then write that in. Or if you shorted a stock and you had to pay a dividend, then write
that in.


Ending Balance – The ending balance of your account after the trade is closed after taking into
account trade P&L, commission cost, and interest/swap.


Reasons for taking the trade – Here is where you go into much more detail about why you placed
the trade. Write out your thinking. Instead of writing a paragraph or two describing my thinking
behind the trade, I condense the reasons down into bullet points. It can be anywhere from 1-10
bullet points.


What I Learned – No matter if the trade is a win or loss, write down what you believed you
learned. Again, instead of writing out a paragraph or two, I condense it down into bullet points. it
can be anywhere from 1-10 bullet points. I do this during the day the trade closed as a profit or
loss.


What I learned after Long Term reflection, several days, weeks, or months – This is the very
interesting column. This is important because after you have a winning or losing trade, you will
not always know the true reasons why it happened. You have your immediate theories and
reasons which you include in the previous column. However, there are times when after several
days, weeks, or months, you find the true reason and proper market belief about why your trade
succeeded or failed. It can take a few days or weeks or months to reach that “aha” moment. I am
not saying that I am thinking about trades I placed ten months ago. I try to forget about them and
focus on the present moment. However, there will be trades where you have these nagging
questions about they failed or succeeded and you will only discover those reasons several days,
weeks, or months later. When you discover the reasons, you write them in this column.
submitted by Fox-The-Wise to Forex [link] [comments]

My First Year of Trading

So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up..
Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot.
My friend says to me "where next?"
"I don't know, you're the tour guide"
"We can go check out Bay Street"
"what's 'Bay Street?'"
"It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!"
Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember.
I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence. I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it.
Cue self doubt.
Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..*

A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best.
"Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?"
"Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum"
"Oh... guess I can't do that..."
Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name , you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it.
My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;)
Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day.
He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??"
Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic.
By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day.
It ain't me.
So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen.
Click.
"dammit."
Click.
"shit."
Click. Click.
"you fuck."
Click.
This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity.
My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him.
"So, are you consistently profitable?"
"mmm... I do alright."
"Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?"
.........................
"I do alright."
Silence.
"Do you know any consistently profitable traders?"
"Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron"
......................
"So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?"
"no."
...................
Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it.
This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take? Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING? Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself,
I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth.
It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will.
Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say,
"If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started."
This applies very much to my experience.
So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate.
Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit.
Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading.
As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small.
I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money.
Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc.
So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol.
First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point.
You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small.
Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce.
Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders.
All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others.
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day."
Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into."
Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was.
Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence.
Journal every day. K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making.
Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far;
Market Wizards -Jack Schwager
One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore
The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger
Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz
Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly
The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes
Dark Pools -Scott Patterson
Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense.
Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets.
Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses.
Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process?
Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls.
Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less.
It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea?
You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be.
They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
submitted by indridcold91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Technical Strategy for High Impact News Trading

After my 1:20 RR buys on EURUSD after the ECB event, I got a lot of questions about news trading.
These buys were a slight adaption of a strategy I have that is only for trading news events. I've attached a write up of the strategies engagement rules and risk controls to explain things I do and do not do in news events (If I trade them at all).

News Momentum Follow / Fade


Strategy Objective
To find opportunities where high RR trades can be achieved in short periods of time, due to increased volatility in the market after news events.

Strategy Method
The strategy is fully technical analysis based, but uses a trigger of strong moves on high impact news events to filter for trading opportunities. The news events have to be important (interest rates etc). Price action has to make a consistent move in the first 10 minutes (no whipsaw ranges).
The strategy will define areas before the news event where price might breakout in a trend, or reverse after a trend correction. These areas will be marked in, if there is strong momentum into these areas after the news event, the strategy will place limit orders to enter at strong RR prices.
When the news is against the trend, we are looking to fade it from key retrace areas. When it’s with the trend, we look for continuations after breakouts.

Strategy Engagement Rules
There must be high impact, scheduled news. This will usually only be interest rate decisions, although there will be some exceptions to this.
The pairs on watch lists must have overall trending conditions on larger charts, and support/resistance zones taken from these charts.
No action can be taken before the news event, or in the 10 minutes after the news event.
Market entries are not permitted. Limit orders must be used to reduce slippage risks.
Strong moves are required. Over 100 pips in the first 15 minute close.
A brief period of consolidation has to follow the initial spike. Even using limits, orders are not placed while price has strong momentum.

Strategy Risks
The obvious risks for this strategy are volatility and execution. It deals with these in multiple ways. Since entries are made after the news and during consolidation with limit orders, slippage on entries is not a problem. The main threat is slippage on stops. These will usually be 50 pips or so, so are unlikely to massively rack up larger losses in slips. Fills on profitable exits should be fine. These will usually take a few hours at least, and liquidity will have returned to normal.
The added volatility can add some more possible variance, but this is balanced out by good entries being able to get 1:10 RR trades in only hours.

Strategy Trading Frequency and Duration
This strategy will usually only trade on a few occasions per month. It’s trading activity will be centralised around the times there are interest rate decisions from major central banks. Losing trades will usually be complete in under 4 hours. Winning trades 12 - 18 hours.

Position Structure
Positions for this strategy will be opened in block of five trades. These will be limit orders spaced out evenly in a grid formation in a possible reversal zone. All positions will be of equal size and use the same amount of pips in stops, but have different profit targets at various RR points.

Money Management
This strategy uses the same amount of risk in all net positions.
Stop losses are applied when opening all trades to cap risk.
This can be as low as 0.1%, or even lower (on suitable funds).
No more than 1 losing trade allowed on one day.
No more than 4 losing trades allowed in one week.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Common Trading Mistakes: How Trend Strategies Lose Edges in Corrections.

Common Trading Mistakes: How Trend Strategies Lose Edges in Corrections.
Losing consistently in a trend is frustrating. It tends to make people feel either stupid or conspired against. The market always goes up ... until you buy. What's with that?

If you find yourself getting the run around in trending moves, this post should help.

We'll start with having a look at the areas common styles of trend following can generate losing signals '/ stop losses. The two main types of trend trading are breakouts and retracements. Here we can see the areas they are likely to generate losing trades in a typical trend formation.

https://preview.redd.it/14c7t96ufbj31.png?width=637&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca52ae781d968c106609808963ff2202e0cfcce9
On the left, we have breakout loses. On the right we have retracement losses.
The trades on the right are not too much of a problem. If you had a sold trend trading strategy using breakouts and maintained it with good money management, you'd be doing well. Having some strings of small losses would not matter relative to the trend moves you catch. It's this red bit. This is where things get sketchy. Here a lot of false signals will be generated. In a larger picture for retracement traders, but also on short term false breakouts.

Strategies that would have been very profitable ran through the blue area can become breakeven or losing strategies in the red area. This is actually (in my view) likely the reason most trend based EAs that can be designed easily or bought have limited long term profitability even if they produce great short term results. To make money in a blue market, the EA needs you to tell it how to do two things. Not get stopped out, and sell. There may be bumpy bits, but it will make money so long as that market condition continues.

This is all well and good, but the reality of having to deal with risk control in adverse market conditions will inevitably come along. When this happens, not adapting your trend strategy to filter out the losing streaks that most strategies will generate seriously hampers your net profitability and can even turn a good strategy bad.

In the early week gap and brief breakout on USDJPY, I thought it was likely we were switching from a blue market to a red market. So I activated the trend followers of different variations on my Shorting Noobs strategy, and waited to see if they'd pick up the worst signals (giving me ideal entries).
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cvki79/shorting_noobs_fake_news_false_breakouts_and_the/

https://preview.redd.it/v34h1n0sgbj31.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae7055bf385ee44465b3d2afb42246998bac1114

I explained what I thought the best trade pan for the sort of price action we'd see in the coming trading sessions would be.
https://preview.redd.it/x9qmvoqwgbj31.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=34a250cf147cda489629c824cd4addb93118701b
My theory here is if you put a bunch of okay strategies (and these are not horrible traders. They have rules, and follow them. Do overall okay) into the very worst conditions, they'll do the worst thing. Which saves me the effort of being here doing what I think is the best thing. To look for big drops, and then it have a little false breakout. Buy this and take profits into spikes.

Here that is a bit closer.

https://preview.redd.it/1vgi23ohibj31.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb13f88ed34431c1e23a0da04fcf3c00f849ee0a
Particularly where the red mark is, this has produce a perfect counter signal. Sharp drop, false breakout. Buy and take profit into spike up.

The interesting thing about this for me, is I do not find too much to be critical about with many of these positions if we are to look at the market from the perspective of a seller. Their stop losses seem to make sense from much of the stop loss rules commonly used (and ones working for them okay in other times of the strategy), but they're commonly being stopped out at the highs.

The main problem most strategies have is the recurrence of what can be increasingly strong looking sell signals. When using solid rules, this is a limited problem (can still be big), but without this and with there being emotional decisions made, this is a really hard time to trade. It's easy to lose all your money trying to follow the trend here, without really doing too much wrong other than starting to chase a loss or refuse to accept a loss. Then things happen so quickly, and that's it. Being a revenge seller selling into the bear engulfing bars right before the 50 pips 1 minute candles does not go well a few times in a row (tried and tested, would not recommend).

As I mentioned in the comments for the OP of this analysis, I stopped selling at 106.05. I stopped copying most of the strategies there because I didn't want them accumulating sells at a possible high. All through the consolidation period their have been sells accumulating and obviously the stops are above the highs, which is exactly the area I'd expect to spike out and reverse from in this pattern. It's what my manual trade plan inverts.
https://preview.redd.it/3488sp3hlbj31.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cbc46de4a1b121526421d27568fe0d7f30d86f8
So at this point these strategies that have been doing well over the blue period (which has been a longer time) have lost most of gains. If the trend continues from here in the main they will breakeven on this red section (would be okay). If there are spike outs of the highs they will generate a lot more losing signals. By the end of this, strategies that have been profitable for 3 months will have leaked back a substantial amount of that in only 4 - 5 days.

Learning to remove these correction weeks from their trading patterns would very much benefit most trend following systems.

Here's the overall results from betting against either trend following or trend reversal mistakes like this.
https://preview.redd.it/6f8v4vgumbj31.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc8049fedf69a447597695a15e9ff1510d3a515
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
See first: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/

Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/5gfhwxcy6wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d4806dee84a7bbe073e08d153da946222893eeb

Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.

https://preview.redd.it/kvnrqau07wj31.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e96f02a189a811d511ef7946037fd670d106b1b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/a44rzzs47wj31.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=43fbebe933fa80d1c24a1f8fde2c08653d125d18

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

https://preview.redd.it/ghvgzr577wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=caeedc4f48ab3b4d1ed921ef519a33200db62868

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.

https://preview.redd.it/m9ga8pp97wj31.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ed069207b8297c0ab67d6608206b57a1b354fef
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.

https://preview.redd.it/68pa0bgc7wj31.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f78ce2c11f267f32dacd17c8717dcfa1f8bcb6a
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/d5qwm8vg7wj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad2deba557f9f6d8a0fe06d34cbe3307e7cccc24

These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/mpoqz4aj7wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=710d72120085c1e137c800f57a36f910f78eebcb
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger context as this.

https://preview.redd.it/tkfzja5n7wj31.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=47fc014619a61728f16e1527e729b82edad6b94e

This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls. I know this looks insanely big ... but this is not much in the context of the theme of the last 50 years. This sort of thing has always been what happened when we made this breakout.

Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper context by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Forecasting the End of Major Corrections, and Accumulating Trend Trading Positions.

Forecasting the End of Major Corrections, and Accumulating Trend Trading Positions.
A prerequisite post to this post can be read here; https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/
It will also be beneficial to read this;
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

Before getting into the meat of things, you need to understand the 'elastic band' effect of large moves in the market. What this means is most of the time before a market starts to make a big move in the direction it is ultimately going, it will make a strong and usually fast counter move. You know this already in a way. You've been taught from early on (I assume) that pin bars (hammers etc) are indications the market is reversing. You're told the wicks are formed by price pushing into an area and being rejected from it.

In a trend formation, this is what the intra-week price action would tend to look like when there is the formation of reversal candles at the close of the weekly timeframe.


https://preview.redd.it/nv1nbk0c9th31.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=f87d94ee33f0d07cde211c05d9234a236a487309
Here we would have been in a down trend and then for a week or two seen bullish momentum. The blue swing is the "elastic band" move. Or what I like to call the "ping swing".

The formation I have drawn here is not arbitrary. A lot of specific things are going on in this chart. Here I've highlighted the relevant ones. When we've seen all of these, we know there is a good chance we have reached the end of a C leg correction (read up on basic Elliot wave theory if you do not understand this terminology).


https://preview.redd.it/8u9bg43nath31.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ddb04a27b9a99ddbcaab5eef4e3ca7eea78e000

There can be variance in the 4 and 5 area. I am being polite, I should be honest. This area is often a bitch to trade in. Sometimes there are deep retracements and sometimes they are really shallow. Personally I've not been able to find ways to get strong ideas of how to forecast which is more likely. It tends to be an area I lose money and one I continue to work on trying to develop better ways of dealing with.

Here are examples of each type from trades I've taken recently.


https://preview.redd.it/6n0x4k43cth31.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=f03fdbff3176e1df36727f3606dbf6fc67912e53
This is explained in more context at https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cks8q1/shorting_noobs_problems_proofs_and_fine_tuning/

This chart is messy because a lot of positions are being taken rather than a specific strategy being followed, but as I've explained in the 'Shorting Noobs' series of posts, I am mot interested in trading off the 61.8% fib.


https://preview.redd.it/97cb1x0wcth31.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=d49bbac385242184d9f9ba2708d1e9fe92efba42
Here is one with EURUSD that had very shallow sell-off then made the ping swing.

https://preview.redd.it/dbiujru0fth31.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=277682a868af7cb2dc2b612243a8abfef54e9de0
You maybe thinking at this point, "But the range bit looks like it should be the 5". I know! I told you it's a bitch. As you can see here regardless of this I have still sold the best price. I am doing this by having a clear SR level I am forecasting in this sort of move. (Explained in more detail in the shorting noob series [2] [3] )
Note, it is still entirely possible that this can make another ping swing and slightly spike out this high. If it does, we have a great opportunity. At this point, we are wiser to look for the better RR trade with trend continuation by considering we are possibly in this part of the move and we have the next (usually stronger than previous) sell off coming.


https://preview.redd.it/15xd09pzfth31.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5e3a70fbc9411b36d74a7e32ebf5c1aabf1ad05

Which actually fits inside another cycle for a ping swing.

https://preview.redd.it/31craqbkgth31.png?width=1018&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d7cc139aa406673213c62009220a3182e7e9e55

Here is a real time forecast of a ping swing we can watch for and set pending orders (or define areas to watch for reversal patterns)

GBPUSD

https://preview.redd.it/uz93cn53ith31.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b2d9a7fc12c961dafb7ee3cc7aa4c1aec29c927
(Ignore the buy trades on this, they are from a different type of strategy)

This is a lot of information, and to intrinsically understand this you'd have to go over a lot of trending charts and watch how they have developed. I have spent a hell of a lot of time on this. I will round up with leaving you just a few simple rules we can take from understanding this general pattern that recurs in trends. Some of them will help you win, others will help to prevent you losing.

1 - When it starts to chop, it's time to stop.

When a trend that has been in a free flowing form starts to get choppy, it's time to stop following the trend for the time being. You should be aware the next breakout(s) can be false ones, and the next shallow correction for a "Retest & continue" type trade is likely a trap.

2 - Big corrections rarely feature only one leg.

When you see a really big move against the trend it gets really tempting to rejoin the trend once it starts to form price action reversal candles. Any time you're entering without the market having previously faked and then spiked out early sellers at least a couple of times, you have a more risky trade.

3 - Forecast where early sellers will lose.

Quite simply, if you see a downtrend and then a spike up and what looks like the continuation of a downtrend you can assume there are sellers into what they think will be the new downtrend move. It's also quite likely these sellers have it very wrong on their stop area. It will be just above the previous highs and the consolation range. This is the very area we'd expect the ping swing to spike into and then make the proper trend move after whipsawing those who sold too early.
Where they are getting stopped out, you want to be entering. Not sure where this is? Look in Forex forums, they'll tell you.

4 - Velocity does not mean victory!

As price comes into the reversal area it will usually be carrying a lot of short term momentum and moving fast. Moving quickly into an area is not in any way an indication of a break of that area or a reversal. In fact, once you've identified where you think the ping swing will end, the more parabolic that move is into that area the better for the reversal trade. Plan ahead, do not be caught up in the moment. The moment will be deceptive.

5 - Have excellent exit plans on both sides of this sort of move.

If the move fails, the counter move running against you can be persistent. Stop losses should be around 78% of the swing. Small spike outs of the 61.8% level are to be expected. Breaks of the 76% level are not. Similarly, profits can come lightening quickly. Which can actually be a problem if you've not planned the areas you want to exit or how to trail your stops. So be well prepared to exit before you enter.


The things I have explained in this post have validity on all timeframes. I scalp with it, and I swing with it. It transfers readily to any market with trending properties. If you were to master this (especially at an intraday level - which is harder) , it would be highly likely you significantly beat what most people would think are "good returns" when the markets are trending.
It would be possible for someone who has sufficient skill in doing this to make themselves substantial profits even starting from a small amount of money and using moderate risk over the course of just trading 4 - 5 major trend moves on daily and weekly charts. This is quite an easy setup in my opinion (once it's been highlighted at least) and for as long as you can find trends to use it, it will outperform most strategies I see on public display.

(All bets are off in ranges. This will make a mockery of you if you try to do it in ranges)

Happy trend following :)
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Seems like there is heightened danger of large low liquidity session move.

We have a lot of things threatening major S/R levels through yesterday, and then them having retracements into the early Asia session

When we have strong areas to break, we should understand this is going to usually take something big or unusual. It is usually news. News gives the market a reason to make big moves. Another reason the market makes big moves is low liquidity. Often unexplained large moves during thin trading sessions. We see this periodically in the Forex markets which I follow closely, and I am sure it will happen in other markets, too.

In the Forex markets (I assume others), the common preludes to it are either a strong trend that is low in the pull back area and then makes a blitz breakout. This is usually 500 - 800 pips (huge), and also usually a false breakout. When I see these moves, I am usually looking to fade them. Price often reverses strongly. What we usually see before this is a two leg move against the prevailing action, and then excessively strong counter move.

It is very common to see these moves spiking out huge weekly SR level.

It seems suspiciously like GBPJPY is setting up for one of these (probably other yen pairs, maybe multiple currencies). If this is to make one of these massive spike out moves on the weekly chart, it will likely be 1.61 extension of the range from the last low made (125 - 155). Which is a hell of a drop ...

I am Adjusting my targets on GBPJPY just in case this should happen. If there is no super volatile swing and we move downwards, I will trail and maybe adjust targets to be closer again. For the time being, I've switched them to be spread from 105 - 115 - maybe there will be a jackpot swing. Some people call it getting lucky.

If this happens, I will be looking for a bottom around 103. If we start to move up from there I think we can trend upwards for some weeks. I'll look to accumulate buys into the start of this move.

Everything has had a really "Hmmm" feeling about it for a while in the markets, without anything major happening. That makes me suspicious.

Hmmm!

GBPJPY target adjusted to 105.
submitted by whatthefx to TradingAlerts [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse - GBPUSD, Traps to Expect and Trades to Make

Preparing for the Impulse - GBPUSD, Traps to Expect and Trades to Make
Part One
Perquisite Posts;
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctyr3p/gbpusd_shaping_up_for_good_sell_but_not_quite_yet/

It will benefit your understanding of this to take some time to read through at least all of these post, and also my other ones. Over the last weeks I've introduced some concepts I think are useful, demonstrated how a person could use them to make profit and presented for consideration ways you can go and test if what I am saying is true in your trading. Now I am going to start to bring this all together to show you how a person can plan well ahead and be well prepared to profit in Forex.

Three weeks ago I gave a swing analysis on GBPUSD (as part of speaking about a broader idea of trend following). It said this.
https://preview.redd.it/q60ia0ophhi31.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf7495e47ea212e5f094bae232f49d700805579a
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

Long term bearish picture here of 1.190. An area I expect us to have a big move in possibly feature a 100 plus pip candle (dare I speculate ... news event, or random fundamental). We got into 1.199s, and then price started to stall.
I then explain by "ping swing" theory and pointed out all the indicators this ping swing was coming.

https://preview.redd.it/wsdjmcb9ihi31.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aad9d994b85d076397a6f07493a0d174012d144

https://preview.redd.it/oe7823ncihi31.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=91dd90e89bf8d3514e63fe0abd6ac6ecdeba26d1
When explaining what the ping swing was all about, I said it set up the really big move in the other direction. The breakout. What I more commonly refer to as the impulse leg.

https://preview.redd.it/bqd1nzmpihi31.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5a20bc5373448056b37b2fc155c7889ce7a3739
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/

So based upon all of these factors I am prepared to trade a move that may be surprisingly strong from a really specific area (will get into trades later). Everything in my analysis form and strategies design allow me to be ready and position my trades to profit from some wild event there may be in the coming week or two weeks (maybe three ... four, eeek. I'm hedging). Now I'm not saying I know there is going to be a certain type of Brexit news ... I do not care. I'm not saying we should think it's very possible the FOMC spikes high and then fucking crashes (surely something to do with that illusive "pricing in" thing) ... I do not care. I am not predicting these fundamental events.

What I am saying is based upon the information I have shared with you so far, a person can design a trade plan that would position them for this sort of price action, and this sort of price action almost always happens when there's a news event. Got that? Think it's very possible there is a huge swing coming, entirely unrelated to any news events that may happen in the future that I could not know about now.

What sort of price action could we expect ... ?

We already have the trade plan for that last week.
https://preview.redd.it/ymsbcbc7khi31.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=77468b23e015a36b2fffc693f7a899facd7b82e1
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctyr3p/gbpusd_shaping_up_for_good_sell_but_not_quite_yet/

GBPUSD closed near the high on some of my brokers but crashed 30 pips in the last minute of the day on another, and this probably means it's opening up gap low. Exactly what we'd expect.

Why?

https://preview.redd.it/uai4g2blkhi31.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=df1c62af4605534a942753a5a311c28f8ae6b1ac
Do this experiment, find this double top pattern. Find the "confirmation" move I explained, and then honestly think where you'd set a stop "safe above the highs" here. Count how many pips it went past that. Probably about 5 - 7 and then crashed. That's the trap.

Lays the next trap. For this let's recap the traps I've shown you and see where we are in the cycle of possible mistakes.

https://preview.redd.it/2mkipd82lhi31.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc48f68d785cef1a46c3d4e96fbe675c2cf056dd
Last week I said we were at the transition from black to blue. Then "the news" made that happen. Then late in the week I said look for spike out trend continuations. All this happened.
So selling into that event was either devastatingly unlucky, there was nothing you can do about it and it is what it is if it happens again (frequently). Or, it was selling mistake #2 (shown as 4 here near the low)
https://preview.redd.it/4xrmb3pilhi31.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=825bc81b68fc5a465b65d87634f7888a4be87c97
What do we have after selling mistake number #2. Selling mistake number #3 (no need to re-invest the wheel).
#3 is a 5 (just to be confusing), and this is "deep correction" selling mistake. Would you think it would be fair to agree anyone selling the double top like move we've discussed here would have made the mistake of thinking a deep correction was a trend continuation? People will have. They do every cycle. This is why I can "predict" it. Or, it's lucky and there's no way you can know. Pick your flavor.
Mistake #4 . Single candle price action. In this case I am forecasting this to be the crash pre-close (on some brokers) or the gap down (a gap is just a big swing). This looks like the real deal on the trend continuation. People will sell into this early in the week. It may be in the form of a big gap down, it making it's low early in the week and then people sell the gap fill (or part retrace). Anyway, the better trade is on the other side of this. We have not yet hit the 61.8 fib and this sort of sell off would be a "known" seller trap.
#5 tends to form when price first hits the 61.8, There is an immediate and dramatic sell off. Then there is a spike out of the 61.8 and the real trend move begins. We should watch for this sort of action Tue/Wed and should expect to be seeing it (very specifically) close to 1.2343.
Which is no surprise to see shaping up since this specific PA is what I started speaking about when it was at the lows.
https://preview.redd.it/frstw4dinhi31.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=97b635c00a004352b990e322524d48400b809888

So if we see these further confirms;

1 - Price spikes/gaps down and then returns aggressively to the high
2 - Price hits 61.8 and falls quickly
3 - These things happen in the immediate foreshadow of a news event (FOMC?)

All of these things would be consistent with things that happen before the following scenario:

1 - News is released. It's unexpected. Either the number is off, it was random (tweet etc) or the market just moved totally different from how it would be expected to (cue theories to fill gaps).

2 - Price moves rapidly up. It makes a "new breakout" of a "key level", and then capitulates. 100 + pips can be moved in very short periods of time.

3 - After this move has happened, there is a sharp low made and we uptrend for the next few weeks.

I am not "predicting the future", but this is a viable trade plan for the coming week(s). We sell GBPUSD 1.2340 area. Stop 1.2410 or so. We target 1.1900. Then we look for the market to make a low (after a very volatile fall) in the 1.1850 sort of area. As a rule of thumb (and I am not being flippant, this is true), if you see people in forums asking what just happened, that will probably be your cue to go and find this trade on your chart. This is a regular indicator.

I think if this is to happen this week, the high will be made Wed/Thurs and crash late week. If it's not to happen this week, a ranging week may be ahead. Even a couple weeks. These would not invalidate the analysis, for the market to range a few weeks to form a "strong high" and then do this take out move I've described is also something to be expected. I would be surprised to not see GBPUSD drop 300 pip from the high in coming month.

Prepare for the Impulse!
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/9r6rnqo4rvj31.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=738602a2157e08c3f9ec6c588ae603edb5b71a36
Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.
https://preview.redd.it/j5q3jrtvsvj31.png?width=1269&format=png&auto=webp&s=a76fdb3de6e943234352f4b9832483c35e082a4b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/ac1kjwr1uvj31.png?width=1249&format=png&auto=webp&s=f94861cab758119231fff168233bebac832cf456

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


https://preview.redd.it/s8vguiimvvj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d023db99041c9ba91f61ab87d3bd48de8da514
These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.
https://preview.redd.it/yowdmil6wvj31.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=bad142803823e6a7f8af56ef63ebebc574210c4b
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.
https://preview.redd.it/axvtd22wwvj31.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=518f309232552ea33921e939b08d2bf28ba76f0b
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/xgvofjcl0wj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564bbe2ece9506c425397c672c16cd75a2766
These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/4tl024da2wj31.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a813fcdf67a0fac41ff1d9a44b540fd1298106
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger content as this.

https://preview.redd.it/ctcill674wj31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=538847fce98009b8177e079aa6a3ecba0684e73f
This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls.
Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper content by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

[R] Understanding The Price Movement Of Cryptocurrency Using Candlestick Charts

Having a basic knowledge of candlestick charts is a great starting point for anyone who is really interested in making a profit, rather than just playing games or speculating with their hard earned money in the cryptospace. The same candlestick that many financial institutions use to build their positions on the forex market is that the same candlestick traders also have in cryptocurrency exchanges.
In the 18th century, candlestick charts were been invented and developed. The earliest reference to a candlestick chart being used in financial markets was found in Sakata, Japan, where a rice merchant named Munehisa and traders use the candlestick to trade ojima rice. So, particularly for newbies that don't know about these candlesticks, it's not a new thing. The candle may be red or green, white or black, some few exchanges may allow it to be defined at which they want to call them. Such candles reflect an activity that is bullish or bearish.
Candle sticks can help anyone identify the next price action movement of a crypto asset, hence there are different candle stick patterns that will be encountered in exchanges that will determine their decisions. These candles are formed due to pressure or force of movement of price which result to form a full candle with or without sticks/wicks. The sticks are formed in the candle because of continuous force pushing or pulling the price of the crypto asset. (here is an illustrative representation of these candles for easy understanding)
Why Is It A Must To Use Candlestick Patterns?
  1. Crypto asset price movements are easier to understand to know where the trend actually moves into either bear or bullish area.
  2. Recognizing the candle pattern and how they occur in that crypto asset's price history is easier.
  3. Candlestick charts unveil a dynamic information in every areas of the price movement with respect to time. (Open, close, high and low) compare to other patterns such as the graph or line charts.
Is this Candlestick Patterns Used By Many?
Due to the volatility of crypto instrument, most traders do not tend to read the chart before trading for the following reasons.
  1. Greed
  2. FeaDoubt
  3. Lack of discipline
  4. Lack of patience
Bottom Line
Understanding candlestick patterns is a key factor to managing those portfolios in the crypto space for maximum returns of investment. Candlesticks helps traders to detect trend reversals and price action breakouts in the market which helps to build a strong and effective trading strategy.
submitted by fikridie to statistics [link] [comments]

Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - More Details, First Trade and End of Week GBPUSD Plan

Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - More Details, First Trade and End of Week GBPUSD Plan
Part 1

If someone said to me, "Hey, I've got $10 million and want 15% a year . I don't want to be in the market more than 3 hours a week". I'd say, "I got this. Give me close of New York session on Friday to 2 hours before the market close. Easy gig."

You may be asking yourself, why the end of the market on a Friday? Is this not the worst time to be trading? I'll let you into a secret ... I am phenomenal at procrastinating. That's why!

It's is actually part of a larger theory. I think there are tendencies towards weeks that have had certain price action to complete certain patterns. The closer to the end of the week we get, the more checkpoints in these patterns price will have had to hit. If any of the important checkpoints fail, no trade. If they all match up, highly confluence confirmed trade - high expectancy of profitability or flat results.

I've explained some of the tendencies in post where someone was asking if we think day of the week is important.

https://preview.redd.it/qdprgzd9q7i31.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=dad959e27fa1ca80051dbe603208d58798a74d1f
In the correct market conditions weeks tend to close with small wicks on the close side. This tells us they close strong, and therefore the is undeniable logic in the idea that if price is not at the high/low on Friday morning, you could really close your eyes and make a profitable trade just betting the week closes strong and make money any week it does.

Of course not all weeks do close strong, but once we add the prerequisites of a trading day explained in part 1, it is far more likely we will have a week that ends strongly. We then further improve our chance of this being confirmed or filtered out as invalid by using short tern intra-day strategies that are used for trend following. What this gives us is a marry up of a macro plan and a micro plan, using meta strategies to execute into the business end of things. We have the luxury of information. With good preparation we can use that information to stack our statistical probabilities favourably.

Another concept worth being aware of is time of day (TOD). The markets will often have cycles in which they move. In the same way some weeks action can be seen to follow an almost template like sort of price action, so can the hours throughout the day.

When the market is to make a trending move, we often see this broken up into these sort of timezones.

1 - Low/high of the day is made in or around the hour of the London open.
2 - The reversal move from that will usually taper out in the hours around New York.
3 - Chicago open time will usually give a correction of the days move.
4 - In the last 4 to 5 hours of the week price will usually make new high/low in line of weeks prevailing direction.
5 - Usually some sort of spike happens 1 - 2 hours before the market closes. This is an exit signal if targets have not hit.


https://preview.redd.it/7cdk5lwvs7i31.png?width=569&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a1e4e0b4c6cbc700d9e27dc984b26bf15a0592f
These can be a couple hours or so out, but if they are drastically out I am less inclined to trade. It's not meeting my checklists.

An interesting quirk of the Forex markets i as I mentioned above London is often the high/low of the day in a trend. Why is this? I do not know. I'd speculate it's something to do with London being the largest session and for them to put on their positions in the morning they do a stop run (creating the H/L) and then reverse the market. The same theory could be applied to why New York corrects the London move, to spike out stops and get better liquidity on their entry.

In the right conditions, it happens quite a lot. This is what makes trade 2 in this sequence such a good trade. As well as it having multiple reasons to back it up and having it's own trend meta strategy to engage with, it's also working inside the framework of London often being the low on any given trending day, and Friday tending to end strong. What is the space in-between these called? Free money! Okay, that's a bit much. I'd say it qualifies as a "Place of interest", though.

This all looks great on paper, but can it practically be applied in the market? Yes. This is what I want to show you.

In part 1, I showed the GBPUSD chart I was looking at for my possible Friday trade.

Here is today's action. I've started by drawing a fib from the low of the big move up to the high. People will wonder why it's not from the very low ... and I am one of they people. I've done this a lot, and when you see this big impulsive leg like this (psst, people will usually alert you to when these happen in forum chatter, usually in the guise of unexpected news events) this is where to draw the fib from.


GBPUSD 5 MIN
I drop in pending orders, I risk 0.2 in two pending orders. I am willing to take more risk and add more positions if I see what I am looking for, but I want low risk on first touch pending orders I may not be here to see. In this case I wasn't. One of my orders filled, one missed. Had I been at my desk, I'd have executed other trades here based on the price action at the 61.8% (shown in part 1).
The green line shows my trade.
I exit by trailing stop close to the high of the swing. As explained in P1, I am looking for a failed high here (or tiny breakout) to exit and await a re-load. I now draw my fibs from the low to the high of this swing (if the high changes, I have to adjust my fibs. I set alerts to tell me if this happens, and I set alerts on my entry area to look for PA entries). Again I set pending orders with low risk, and intend to scale up if I like what I see.


https://preview.redd.it/94akb09tv7i31.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0d8be3e5fa32e6657cb45d9880620c3d684246c
It's possible I've missed this. There was a spike down from the approx area I'd expect that came up ever so short of the 61.8. With it only having one low this is not something I could have taken advantage of. I used to think of these as missed opportunities, but realistically the amount I can control my risk going for these trades makes it an overall negative edge (loses over 100's trades). A trader with a cooler mind tends to drive a cooler car. I do not chase these.

If I get my fill on these in the next hour or two, I will be looking for an impulse leg up into new highs, and if I see that I will also expect there to be some little climax (spike) to the move. My trading actions for this are explained in part 1.

Current Gain = 0.2%
Max risk exposure possible - 0.4%
Max real equity drawdown - < 0.1%
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Shorting Noobs - Tweaks, Improvements and Parabolic Results

Shorting Noobs - Tweaks, Improvements and Parabolic Results
Part One

I made some tweaks and further improvements to the filters to determine the ideal times to look for positions. These produced parabolic results.

https://preview.redd.it/8qhmv1nn3ud31.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=461e1e91006e701063ede1c0da6ba943afba7a94
I know a lot of systems pick up false breakouts, and quick corrections against them take out the stops. So I am interested in finding areas where people join the trend at the wrong time. Similarly I know there is a tendency for them to try to re-join the trend too early. Then think the market is reversing just before it enters into the real trend move. I am looking for ways to make full benefit of these. From the short side point of view, these are the best trades for the master accounts to take. They produce good risk:reward trades with an expected profitable win rate (in my analysis).

The retracement ones are easier to pinpoint. When people sell too early in corrections they are usually doing it based on price action and confirmation patterns. These usually come from the 50% fib area. So when people start to load into positions after a bounce from the 50% fib with targets for a new breakout and stops in the 60% area, these are great trades to take the other side of. A lot of the time these trades are spiked out. From the 61.8% fib level there is a higher chance of the trend continuing. Here there's usually price action that will scare short term traders out of their trend trades and make them reverse on the market. Reversing on a trending market at the 61.8% fib using the common rules for taking profit and stopping loss is a bad bet. I'm more than willing to bet someone doing that a lot will lose money.
I know there are people who think fibs are useless. I'm not here to debate with you, I am just telling you tweaks I have made and my rational for them.

I also know a lot of short term traders give away their money with the "1,000 small cuts" style when the market uses irregular ranges. Irregular ranges tend to form after there has been a strong breakout move. Price holds itself between certain levels and makes a lot of false breakout sort of moves in that range. I know these are hard areas to trade if you're looking at what is happening now, rather than pre-prepare for how to trade these. So when we enter conditions like that I want to do two things. One, I want to get into trades on the short term small chart false breakouts. These will usually whipsaw people trading them unknowing of the broader market context. Secondly, I expect when there's been a strong breakout and price forming irregular ranges (to explain this next, I just means it's not a nice zig zag range that is predictable) to see there being another breakout of this level.
A lot of strategies lose in this period (even many winning ones). In this irregular range they pick up reversal positions and stops losses go where the market would make a new breakout. So when we're in an up-trend and there is this sort of action, I'm interested in accumulating buys at the bottom of the range. To put it another way, those who get into false reversals at bad times. When strategies collect these in the ranging periods with their stops at the breakout level, I'm more willing to accept more positions against this.
See real time build up of positions on AUDUSD. You can also see in this how I've profited from the false breakouts in this pattern (green lines are profitable trades)
https://preview.redd.it/2qz2f04d3ud31.png?width=1315&format=png&auto=webp&s=8bee9cda085f5b95da2b4238d59250136f645912
Update after AUDUSD swings completed. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cks8q1/shorting_noobs_problems_proofs_and_fine_tuning/
For more detailed views of the results here are some breakdowns of the overview (which is posted near the top)


Overview


Yesterday intraday


Today
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

FREE Price Action Mastery Course: How to Trade Breakouts Forex Price Action London Breakout Webinar Replay PRICE ACTION TRADING - (BREAKOUT Trading Strategy ...

Breakout is the first thing that attracts the price action traders to keep eying on a chart. Then, correction/consolidation followed by reversal candle breaching consolidation support/resistance is the signal to trigger an entry. Price Action Breakout. Price Action Breakout. February 27, 2018. 400. 0. Share ke Facebook. Tweet on Twitter . Trader price action merasa bahwa segala sesuatu yang dibutuhkan untuk menganalisa pasar tersedia langsung dari bagan harga, termasuk mekanisme untuk bergerak maju saat mereka memulai. Apa mekanismenya? Mekanismenya hanya harga itu sendiri. Pada artikel sekarang ini kita dapat mencari ... Before we get into my favorite Forex breakout strategy, let’s first define the term, “breakout”. A breakout is any price movement outside a defined support or resistance area.The breakout can occur at a horizontal level or a diagonal level, depending on the price action pattern. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of trendline breakout trading. Price action trading is mainly based on support/resistance and breakout. It does not mean that support/resistance is only horizontal. A trendline works as support/resistance as well. Let us now proceed and find out how a trendline… Download Price Action / BreakOut Indicator for forex trading with cTrader. Close Back. Forum; Algorithms. Indicators; cBots; Freelance; Partners. Featured Brokers; Consultants; VPS; API. cTrader Automate Guides ; FIX API Guides; Open API; Suggestions; Help Center; Log in Sign up. Home; Algorithms; Indicators; Price Action / BreakOut; Price Action / BreakOut free. by rkokerti in category Trend ... Price action breakout traders have the benefit of trading with the trend as well as helping traders pinpoint potential market reversals. ... Learn Forex – EURJPY with Breakout Entries (Created ... Price action breakout strategies are powerful trade signals that often lead to strong moves in the market. Breakouts strategies can form in trending markets or as counter-trend signals, the defining characteristic of a price action breakout strategy is that the breakout leads to a strong directional move either up or down.. Let’s take a look at several examples of price action breakout ... Price action breakout traders have the benefit of trading with the trend as well as potentially being the first to spot market reversals. Below we can see a prime example of such a breakout in action. Forex price action trading signals derived from our price action protocol trading course. Check out our price action signals identified in live markets. Price Action Commentary Price Action Signals. EURCAD 8 Hour Fake Out Signal. By Dale Woods August 17, 2020 September 24, 2020. Read More. Price Action Commentary Price Action Signals. AUDUSD Daily Price Action Rejection Signal Waiting To ... Like all things, we have to pre-qualify a forex breakout using several price action characteristics ahead of time. The ones listed above are just a few of the ones we use in my Course, and there are several others which will clue you off and enhance the probability of the breakout being successful or not. When you can pre-qualify them correctly, you will find breakouts quite easy to trade and ...

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FREE Price Action Mastery Course: How to Trade Breakouts

PRICE ACTION TRADING - BREAKOUT Trading Strategy (English) - In this Price Action Trading Strategies video, I have done a Live Intraday Trading Session where... In this video I look at the recent price action in the GBP following the Meaningful vote in the UK parliament in which Theresa May was roundly defeated. Given the various Brexit options on the ... Breakout Trading Strategy: How to Trade Forex Breakouts like a Pro! 📈 - Duration: 19:03. ... Best Forex Trading Strategy: Powerful Price Action Entry! 📈 - Duration: 15:45. TraderNick 44,025 ...

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